2016 Dick’s Nationals Projections

Dick's Nationals

The 2016 Dick’s Nationals tournament will certainly feature some of the nations best teams, but again it will feel incomplete without an undefeated California power. Much like the 35-0 Mater Dei (CA) team led by Stanley Johnson just two seasons ago, Lonzo Ball and undefeated Chino Hills (CA) will not be allowed to participate in the “National Championship” event because of California state rules. It’s almost like going into March Madness without all of the projected one seeds participating because of NCAA sanctions.

More states need to get on board with the Dick’s Nationals tournament to allow their schools to prove themselves as the true national champions. A few associations that come to mind are California, Texas, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Washington Catholic Athletic Conference affiliates. It seems as if every other year St. Anthony (NJ) would qualify for the Dick’s Nationals tournament if the school were eligible and other New Jersey powers such as Patrick School (NJ) would certainly add an opportunity to spice up the field as well. WCAC teams always have strong teams and this year schools like St. John’s (DC) and Dematha Catholic (MD) would make a strong field even stronger. While more states are coming on board and allowing their teams to play such as recent additions Washington state members and Georgia affiliates. Other states who are allowed to participate in the event include Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Utah, and New York schools.

In a perfect world the seeding would be set up: 1 Chino Hills (CA), 2 Oak Hill Academy (VA), 3 Montverde Academy (FL), 4 St. Anthony (NJ), 5 Atascocita (TX), 6 Findlay Prep (NV), 7 University of Detroit Jesuit (MI), 8 Stevens Point (WI) (Assuming all teams win out). Unfortunately, this is not a perfect world and therefore a Dick’s National field with five unbeaten teams and a total of just three losses in the entire field is impossible. Assuming all teams finish out their regular season or postseasons without another loss there are six teams that look to be locks for this years event, leaving just two spots open for a handful of bubble teams.


 

This Year’s Projected Field:

 

Locks:

Oak Hill Academy coach Steve Smith will look to capture his first ever Dick's Nationals title.

Oak Hill Academy coach Steve Smith will look to capture his first ever Dick’s Nationals title.

Oak Hill Academy (VA)

Projected Seed: #1
Record: 39-1
Dick’s Nationals History: 6 appearances, 8-6 record

Quality Wins:
Providence Day (NC), Chaminade Prep (MO), Evelyn Mack (NC), Arlington Country Day (FL), Huntington Prep (WV), West Linn (OR), Dematha Catholic (MD), Paul VI (VA), Rainier Beach (WA), Sierra Canyon (CA), Mater Dei (CA), Jonesboro (GA), Hamilton Heights (TN) twice

Division I Commits:
2016 6′ 11″ C Rodney Miller (Miami), 2016 6′ 8″ SF Braxton Key (Alabama), 2016 6′ 7″ SF Mario Kegler (Mississippi State), 2016 6′ 9″ PF Khadim Sy (Virginia Tech), 2017 6′ 4″ SG Ty-Shon Alexander (Creighton)

Other Notables:
2017 6′ 2″ PG Matt Coleman, 2017 6′ 3″ SG Devontae Shuler, 2017 6′ 2″ PG Lindell Wigginton

Oak Hill coach Steve Smith amassed another impressive accomplishment this season as he eclipsed the 1,000 win mark mid-way through the season. The one accolade that still eludes coach Smith however is a coveted Dick’s Nationals/NHSI title. Oak Hill Academy has made it to four Dick’s Nationals/NHSI championship games but have come up short every time. Oak Hill Academy will look to reach the championship game for a third consecutive year and certainly have the star power and depth to do it with a deep mixture of youth and experience.


Montverde Academy (FL)

Projected Seed: #2
Record: 25-1
Dick’s Nationals History: 5 appearances, 13-2 record (3x champion 2013, 2014, 2015)

Quality Wins:
Pebblebrook (GA), Wheeler (GA) twice, Westlake (GA), Huntington Prep (WV), Spain Park (AL), Westerville South (OH), St. Francis (GA), Seton Hall Prep (NJ), St. John’s (DC), Dematha Catholic (MD), Roman Catholic (PA), Sierra Canyon (CA), Wasatch Academy (UT), Roselle Catholic (NJ)

Division I Commits:
2016 6′ 10″ C Micah Potter (Ohio State), 2016 6′ 3″ PG Howard Washington (Butler)

Other Notables:
2016 6′ 8″ PF Silvio De Sousa, 2018 6′ 9″ SF EJ Montgomery, 2016 6′ 10″ PF Bruno Fernando, 2017 6′ 9″ SF Sean Mobley, 2018 6′ 8″ PF Simi Shittu, 2019 6′ 6″ SG RJ Barrett

Montverde Academy has a young but very talented core group of players who will be eager to test their talents against the nations best. The Eagles are coming off three consecutive Dick’s Nationals titles on the back of a star cast headed by the likes of Ben Simmons and D’Angelo Russell. This year’s Montverde squad will certainly look much different than their teams over the past three years, however the talent level across the roster is still very high and with a full year together this team is meshing perfectly heading into postseason play.


Findlay Prep (NV) 

Projected Seed: #3
Record: 28-1
Dick’s Nationals History: 7 appearances, 12-4 record (3x champion 2009, 2010, 2012)

Quality Wins:
Shadow Mountain (AZ), Wasatch Academy (UT), O’Gorman (SD), St. Benedict’s Prep (NJ), Victory Prep (TX)

Division I Commits:
2016 6′ 4″ PG Skylar Mays (LSU), 2016 6′ 4″ SG Carlos Johnson (UNLV), 2017 6′ 8″ PF Tristan Clark (Baylor)

Other Notables:
2017 6′ 8″ PF P.J. Washington, 2017 6′ 8″ SF O’Shae Brissett, 2017 5′ 11″ SG Markus Howard, 2017 6′ 3″ SG Shakwon Barrett

Findlay Prep has not made the Dick’s Nationals championship game since they captured their last title in 2012. This season they certainly have the talent to make another run at the title, however they may have not prepared themselves well enough with their relatively weak national schedule. The Pilots have made the Dick’s Nationals/NHSI event every year since its inception and this year will be no different. The question is how much will their weak national schedule affect their seed and their level of play in the event. Watch out for the Pilots as they look to return to glory.


St. Benedict’s Prep (NJ)

Projected Seed: #4
Record: 31-1
Dick’s Nationals History: 3 appearances, 4-3 record

Quality Wins:
Upper Room Christian (NY) twice, Seward Park (NY), Westtown (PA), La Lumiere (IN), Bartow (FL), Huntington Prep (WV)

Division I Commits:
2016 6′ 9″ PF Arnaldo Toro (George Washington), 2016 6′ 3″ SG James Scott (Kennesaw State)

Other Notables:
2017 6′ 10″ PF Bourama Sidibe, 2016 6′ 4″ SG David Beatty, 2017 5′ 11″ PG Jayden Gaulden-Saddler, 2016 6′ 9″ PF Warren Williams

St. Benedict’s Prep would return to the national tournament for the first time since 2013. The last time they traveled to the event it was located in Maryland and named the National High School Invitational. Now, known as Dick’s Nationals and located in New York the tournament will be the ultimate test for this one-loss New Jersey power. The Gray Bee’s have been a big surprise on the national stage this year as their best player Trevon Duval transferred to Advanced Prep International (TX) in the offseason. Watch out for the scrappy Gray Bees to make an appearance in the national tournament with their never-say-die attitude.


La Lumiere (IN)

Projected Seed: #5
Record: 24-3
Dick’s Nationals History: 3 appearances, 0-3 record

Quality Wins:
Spain Park (AL), Arlington Country Day (FL), Master’s Academy (FL), Fairfax (CA), Sanford (DE), Wheeler (GA), Prolific Prep (CA), Patrick School (NJ), Garfield Heights (OH), Lighthouse Christian (TN)

Division I Commits:
2016 6′ 10″ C James Banks (Texas), 2016 6′ 4″ SG Brandon Cyrus (DePaul), 2016 6′ 7″ PF Algevon Eichelberger (DePaul)

Other Notables:
2017 6′ 10″ PF Jeremiah Tilmon, 2017 6′ 7″ SF Brian Bowen, 2017 6′ 0″ SG Isaiah Coleman-Lands, 2019 5′ 11″ PG Tyger Campbell

La Lumiere is all but a lock for this year’s Dick’s Nationals field and they finally have the firepower to get over the hump and earn their first win in the prestigious event. After making the event three consecutive years from 2011-2014 they missed the tournament last season despite finishing the regular season with just two losses but still missing the tournament for the first time since the 2010 season. This year La Lumiere finished the season on an eleven game winning streak after losing three of five games in a tough stretch mid-season.


Providence Day (NC)

Projected Seed: #6
Record: 30-3
Dick’s Nationals History: No Appearances

Quality Wins:
Wesleyan Christian (NC), High Point Christian (NC) twice, Greensboro Day (NC), Ravenscroft (NC) twice, David Crockett (TN), Pace Academy (GA), Wheeler (GA), Norcross (GA)

Division I Commits:
2016 6′ 7″ PF Grant Williams (Tennessee)

Other Notables:
2016 6′ 8″ PF Isaac Johnson, 2016 6′ 6″ SF Josh Howard, 2018 6′ 1″ PG Devon Dotson, 2018 6′ 4″ SG Trey Wertz

Providence Day is rolling right now, they have reeled off 20 straight wins and have dominated North Carolina competition toward the end of the season. They are led by Team CP3 big man Grant Williams and have intriguing young  guard prospects 2018 Devon Dotson (recently offered by North Carolina) and 2018 Trey Wertz. The debate of which North Carolina team will make the tournament is over as Providence Day has beaten out all competition in regular season and postseason play. They haven’t lost in the calendar year of 2016 and will look to continue that success at Dick’s Nationals.


 

Bubble Watch:

Garfield is hoping to capture another Washington state title en route to a potential Dick's Nationals bid.

Garfield fell to Rainier Beach (WA) in the Washington state semifinals and suffer a drop in the Dick’s Nationals bubble watch.

 


Greenforest Christian (GA)

Projected Seed: #7
Record: 30-2
Dick’s Nationals History: No Appearances

Quality Wins:
Lee (AL), Pebblebrook (GA), Norcross (GA), Pace Academy (GA), Providence Day (NC), Wellington (FL), Southwest Atlanta Christain (GA)

Division I Commits:
2016 6′ 3″ SG John Ogwuche (New Hampshire)

Other Notables:
2017 7′ 0″ C Ikey Obiagu, 2017 6′ 8″ PF Victor Enoh, 2017 6′ 1″ PG Justin Forrest. 2017 6′ 10″ PF Abayomi Iyiola, 2017 6′ 7″ SF Precious Ayah

Greenforest Christian is another experienced group whose core has been together since their freshman year. They have taken their lumps over the years as their youth transitioned to experience, but this years group of juniors and seniors are ready to shine on the big stage. They avenged last seasons loss and captured the A Georgia state title over Kobi Simmons and St. Francis (GA) making them a very serious contender for the field. They can thank Jaylen Brown and Wheeler (GA) for this opportunity as they were the first Georgia school allowed to participate in the event last season.


H.D. Woodson (DC)

Projected Seed: #8
Record: 33-0
Dick’s Nationals History: No Appearances

Quality Wins:
Thurgood Marshall (DC), St. Stephen’s & St Agnes (VA), Walsingham Academy (VA), Roosevelt (DC), Eleanor Roosevelt (DC), Gonzaga (DC), Friendship Academy (DC)

Division I Commits:
None

Other Notables:
206 6′ 7″ PF Antwan Walker, 2018 6′ 5″ SG Kiyon Boyd, 2016 6′ 2″ SF Kavon Montgomery, 2016 6′ 0″ SG Tamontae Chambliss, 2018 5′ 8″ PG Derquan Washington

H.D. Woodson wrapped up their first undefeated season since 1985 as they captured their second consecutive DCIAA title taking down Chavez (DC), Gonzaga (DC), and Friendship Collegiate Academy (DC). Finishing up their season with a mark of 33-0 and taking their second consecutive DCIAA title makes them a real contender for Dick’s Nationals and should place them in the field. The one big knock is their lackluster national schedule. This may be the only question that keeps Woodson on the bubble, however after winning back-to-back DCIAA titles combined with an unblemished mark of 33-0 it will be very difficult to keep this talented DC squad out of the national event.


Hamilton Heights Christian (TN)

Projected Seed: None
Record: 28-3
Dick’s Nationals History: No Appearances

Quality Wins:
Rock (FL) twice, Wesley Christian (KY), Westtown (PA), Southwind (TN), Bolton (TN), Blanche Ely (FL), Brentwood Academy (TN), Mountain Mission (VA)

Division I Commits:
2016 6′ 11″ C Abdul Ado (Mississippi State), 2016 6′ 6″ SF Ezekiel Balogun (Citadel), 2017 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Florida)

Other Notables:
2017 6′ 8″ SF Silas Adheke, 2017 6′ 5″ SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Hamilton Heights is sitting right on the fence and will be hoping for a loss from Garfield (WA), Miller Grove (GA), and Greenforest Christian (GA). The problem for Hamilton Heights is their three losses on the season which is one more loss than other bubble teams before mentioned. The opposing argument is that Oak Hill Academy (VA) handed Hamilton Heights two of their three losses. While this group has a strong argument for an invitation to the tournament will Dick’s Nationals set up a third match-up between Oak Hill Academy and Hamilton Heights? (Assuming Hamilton Heights sneaks in at 8 and Oak Hill is the number one seed) Time will tell if a Tennessee team receives their first team invitation to the event.


Miller Grove (GA)

Projected Seed: None
Record: 30-2
Dick’s Nationals History: No Appearances

Quality Wins:
Columbus (MS), Fremont (CA), Timpview (UT), Southwest DeKalb (GA) 3 times, Cedar Grove (GA), Lithonia (GA), Tucker (GA), South Paulding (GA), McIntosh (GA), Allatoona (GA)

Division I Commits:
2016 6′ 0″ PG Alterique Gilbert (Connecticut)

Other Notables:
2016 6′ 4″ SF Colin Young 2017 6′ 3″ SG Naquante Hardy 2016 5′ 11″ PG Aaron Augustin 2016 6′ 6″ PF Raylon Richardson 2016 6′ 3″ Aidan Saund

Miller Grove is almost always a contender to compete for a Georgia AAAAA state title and this year is no different. They will compete against Allatoona for the state chip tonight. If they capture the title they may need some help to jump into the picture for a bid in Dick’s Nationals. Miller Grove simply hasn’t beaten the quality opponents Hamilton Heights (TN) or Greenforest Christian (GA) have. The Wolverines captured their seventh state title with a win over Allatoona (GA) 50-48 in the 5A Georgia State title. Miller Grove is right on the bubble for an invitation to this year’s event but either way their season was a success with their Georgia state title.


Wasatch Academy (UT)

Projected Seed: None
Record: 29-3
Dick’s Nationals History: No Appearances

Quality Wins:
Sacred Heart (AL), Sandy Creek (GA), Centennial (NV), Mountain View (AZ), Timpview (UT), Balboa City (CA), La Lumiere (IN), St. Joseph (IL), The First Academy (FL), Sagemont (FL), Summit Academy (UT), Weber (UT)

Division I Commits:
2016 6′ 3″ PG Koby McEwan (Utah State)

Other Notables:
2018 6′ 7″ SF Emmanuel Akot, 2017 6′ 9″ PF Josip Vraknic, 2016 6′ 8″ PF Jackson Rowe, 2018 5′ 10″ PG Damion Squire

Wasatch Academy is firmly on the bubble for this year’s Dick’s Nationals. Their resume mirrors Hamilton Heights Christian (TN) as they have a number of quality wins including a big win over Dick’s Nationals lock La Lumiere (IN). With Kobe McEwan as their catalyst they have just three losses on the year, two of which came against the projected two and three seeds of the tournament (Montverde Academy (FL) and Findlay Prep (NV). Wasatch Academy has a very legitimate shot at earning an invitation to this year’s Dick’s Nationals tournament and would be the first Utah school to earn a bid in the event.


Garfield (WA)

Projected Seed: None
Record: 25-3
Dick’s Nationals History: No Appearances

Quality Wins:
Corona del Sol (AZ), Central Catholic (OR), West Linn (OR), O’Dea (WA), Rainier Beach (WA), Bellevue (WA)

Division I Commits:
2017 6′ 4″ SG Daejon Davis (Washington), 2016 6′ 6″ PF Alphonso Anderson (Montana)

Other Notables:
2016 5′ 10″ PG Jayshaun Agosto, 2017 6′ 4″ SG Jaylen Nowell, 2018 6′ 8″ PF J’Raan Brooks, 2016 6′ 1″ SG Terrell Brown

Rainier Beach (WA) set the precedent for Washington state schools to participate in this event and now Garfield looks to follow in their bitter rivals footsteps. An experienced group headed by Daejon Davis and Alphonso Anderson will hope for a bid to this year’s tournament despite suffering a tough state semifinal loss to Rainier Beach (WA) (second loss to Rainier Beach this season). Garfield looks to be on the outside looking in after falling short of capturing a Washington state title.


Outside looking in:

Advanced Prep International (TX) 32-7
Greensboro Day (NC) 28-5
Hammond (SC) 23-3
High Point Christian (NC) 24-6
Wings Academy (NY) 22-3
Federal Way (WA) 27-0
West Oaks Academy (FL) 25-4
Long Island Lutheran (NY) 22-3
Westlake (GA) 26-4
Grandview Prep (FL) 34-0
Lone Peak (UT) 20-5


Although the nations top team will be unable to participate in this year’s event there are a number of intriguing story lines and a number of questions to be answered. The biggest questions involve perennial powerhouses and elite prospects and I will attempt to answer them with my predictions for this years event below.

1. Who will win this year’s Dick’s Nationals event?
Montverde Academy (FL)

2. Who will be this year’s biggest Dick’s Nationals snub?
Miller Grove (GA)

3. Will La Lumiere (IN) capture their first ever win at Dick’s Nationals?
Yes

4. Who will make a name for himself on national television at this year’s event?
2018 6′ 2″ PG Devon Dotson

5. What team will suffer a first round upset loss in the 2016 Dick’s Nationals?
Findlay Prep (NV)


Complete Dick’s Nationals History:

Kevin Boyle looks to lead Montverde Academy (FL) to an unprecedented fourth straight Dick's Nationals title.

Kevin Boyle looks to lead Montverde Academy (FL) to an unprecedented fourth straight Dick’s Nationals title.

 

Championship Game Results:

2015: 2 Montverde Academy (FL) over 1 Oak Hill Academy (VA) 70-61
2014: 1 Montverde Academy (FL) over 6 Oak Hill Academy (VA) 71-62
2013: 2 Montverde Academy (FL) over 4 St. Benedict’s Prep (NJ) 67-65
2012: 1 Findlay Prep (NV) over 3 Montverde Academy (FL) 86-83
2011: 1 Montrose Christian (MD) over 2 Oak Hill Academy (VA) 71-64 2OT
2010: 2 Findlay Prep (NV) over 1 Montverde Academy (FL) 59-46
2009: 2 Findlay Prep (NV) over 1 Oak Hill Academy (VA) 74-66


 

Notable Alumni:

2009: Avery Bradley, Terrance Ross, Lamar Patterson, Lamont Jones, Mouphtauo Yarou

2010: Tristan Thompson, Cory Joseph, Doron Lamb, Roscoe Smith, Marshall Plumlee

2011: Austin Rivers, Quinn Cook, Myck Kabongo, Nick Johnson, Ty Johnson

2012: Anthony Bennett, Brandon Ashley, Justin Anderson, Winston Shepard, Michael Frazier

2013: Tyler Ennis, Kasey Hill, Dakari Johnson, Nate Britt, Devin Williams, Nigel Williams-Goss

2014: D’Angelo Russell, Kelly Oubre, Josh Perkins, Rashad Vaughn, Prince Ali, Shaqquan Aaron

2015: Ben Simmons, Jaylen Brown, Thomas Bryant, Dwayne Bacon, Allonzo Trier, Miles Bridges


 

Tournament History:

Findlay Prep (NV): 7 appearances, 12-4 overall, 3 championships
Oak Hill Academy (VA): 6 appearances, 8-6 overall
Montverde Academy (FL): 5 appearances, 13-2 overall, 3 championships
Montrose Christian (MD): 5 appearances, 5-4 overall, 1 championship
Blanche Ely (FL): 3 appearances, 0-3 overall
La Lumiere (IN): 3 appearances, 0-3 overall
St. Benedict’s Prep (NJ): 3 appearances, 4-3 overall
Huntington Prep (WV): 2 appearances, 2-2 overall
Winter Park (FL): 2 appearances, 1-2 overall
Mountain State (WV): 2 appearances, 1-2 overall
Prime Prep (TX): 1 appearance, 1-1 overall
Dwyer (FL): 1 appearance, 1-1 overall
Boys & Girls (NY): 1 appearance, 1-1 overall

1 appearance with 0-1 record:

Rainier Beach (WA)
Northside Christian Academy (NC)
Sagemont (FL)
St. Frances (MD)
Friends Central (PA)
Pinewood Prep (SC)
Christ School (NC)
Charlotte Christian (NC)
John Carroll (MD)
United Faith (NC)
Coolidge (DC)
Ravenscroft (NC)
Wheeler (GA)
Greensboro Day (NC)
Wings Academy (NY)